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Thursday, September 11, 2008

NFL Week 1 and looking ahead to week 2

Well like any year in the NFL week 1 is always the craziest and normally where most upsets occur, so if your team blew a big game or just got annihilated don't worry...yet. Normally it is to hard to tell how good a team will be until around week 4 or 5. Hell the Giants last year almost started off 0-3 until pulling off a great comeback on the road last year against the Redskins and holding them off on a goal line stand. So if you're a Jaguars or Seahawks fan it's not quite time to panic, you may just need to get healthy (what is Matt Hasselbeck going to do after losing his top 4 WR's?)

But let's get to the biggest story of the week obviously talking abot Tom Brady's season ending injury. You never want to see a team's best player go down, especially the 1st game of the season, and I say this as a fan who's teams odds just got a little better with the Brady injury. Do I feel sorry for the Patriots organization and there fans? Yes, even if I do think Bill Belichick is a giant jackass this type of thing sucks. The NFL is such a short season compared to any other sport, not saying just the amount of games but all the time between the Superbowl to training camp and the start of the season, it's just a giant waiting process and sometimes just feels like it will never get here. I just feel terrible for the players when these type of injuries happen, or like how the 1st play in the 1st practice this year in training camp Phillip Daniels, defensive end of the Washington Redskins tears his ACL and now his whole year is over and now he's got to wait to heal and have to deal with a bunch of rehab and repetition that he doesn't want to go through. The same thing happened to All-Pro Center LeCharles Bentley who signed with his hometown Cleveland Browns a couple seasons ago and gets hurt the 1st play of training camp and hasn't played a down since, though he is currently looking for work. These guys only play for a short time, especially the average to mediocre players because there is almost some guy who can do your job who is younger, quicker and cheaper then you are and to just see them have to sit around for a year of there life is depressing to think about (and I say this realzing most of these guys will make more money then I ever will).

I don't think it was a dirty play by Bernard Pollard but he certainly hit Brady in a sensitive area, somewhat similar to Carson Palmer's knee injury, I still don't think that Palmer has completely recovered from that injury, he just doesn't look as good or as promising as he once did. As for what I think Matt Cassel can do, it's tough to say, he's been in that system for awhile but I don't forsee spectacular things, if he can just move the chains and not screw up to much I think they have the defense to keep them in games. As a guy who finally took a WR early in the draft for about the 1st time ever I'm a bit worried about what Randy Moss will do, he caught a TD pass with 11:45 left in the 2nd quarter, at that point he had 6 catches with 116 yards and didn't get another reception the rest of the day. I think Welker's production will still be fine but Moss has a tendency to disappear at times from the offense and he may begin to pout if he can't get a capable QB to get him the ball. I think Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney will get alot of touches this year, Patriot RB's are usually hard to rely on fantasy wise because Belichick likes to use several of them but a platoon of the running backs mentioned could put up some numbers.

Jason Whitlock is one of my favorite sports writers out there, I don't always read his stuff but evertime I come across an article of his I always think he brings up interesting and somewhat thought provoking points, especially on racial issues, here is his take on the Vince Young saga this week: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8550254

I'd also like to say thank you to Shawn Merriman for forgoing this season after 1 game and doing what's right for now and in your future, you'll be better off getting your surgery to repair your leg and will probabl come back next year as healthy as ever. You are only 24 and if the surgery heals probably you can possibly stick in this league for a dozen more years.

Other thoughts around the league:

My pick of Michael Turner is looking good through week 1, but lets wait and see what happens when he plays a legitimate defense against Tampa Bay this weekend.

Looks like I was wrong about Desean Jackson, figured he was to small and would be like Ted Ginn was like last year where he was primarily a return man, but as long as the Eagles top 2 WR's are hurt he will be getting an extensive look. Still curious how his body will hold up over an entire season, and if he is afraid of going over the middle.

Despite Desean Jackson's performance against the lowly Rams he still wasn't the best rookie WR, that goes to Eddie Royal, he torched Deagelo Hall all game, I thought Hall was overrated in Atlanta but could be a decent #2 CB opposite Nnamdi Asomugha but man he was terrible, not to mention getting 2 penalties on back to back plays. On a somewhat positive note the Raiders had a good running game early and if Jamarcus Russell can get some time in the pocket (and a good receiver) he has the makings of living up to his #1 pick status.

What a heartbreaker dropped by San Diego, on your home turf no less, I thought Jake Delhomme handled the final minute of that game poorly when he didn't call his final timeout with 25 seconds left and he didn't get a play off until 7 seconds left. But that pump fake that fooled the camera man then to find Dante Rosario in the endzone capped off a somewhat improbable upset especially without Steve Smith. I'm telling you that team plays different when Delhomme is healthy. And that was a good throw to, sure it went seemingly through 2 Charger defenders but it was smart to throw it up high to give his Tight end a shot at being the only one who could catch it.

Now onto my thoughts about the Dallas game, they looked fantastic, I can't remember the last time I saw our offensive line perform like that, Tony Romo wasn't forced to rush things even though Cleveland was sending quite a few blitzers in the 1st half. It appears for now that the line has recovered from the 4th quarter meltdown last playoffs. The entire offense played above expectations, and coming into this week I'm even more excited to see Felix Jones, the man has burst when he gets past the 1st level that is almost unmatched in this league. He gets a head of steam like Marion Barber. About the only 2 mistakes the offense made the entire day was a drop pass from the normally surehanded Jason Witten that just went through his hands. And then on Romo's INT, I think they wanted to give Terrell Owens a touchdown after just getting a big gain, and it was obvious Romo was going to him. He could have gotten it to Owens who had separation for a split second had Romo thrown it right when he received the ball but he hesitated briefly and made a poor decision. Thankfully they were in the lead by a comfortable margin. The offense however was once again getting to many penalties, from false starts to holding this type of thing has plagued us since Parcells was here and it's got to stop because it is just killing this team.

Defensively I think in the 1st half we were somewhat shaky but left our mark on Cleveland in the 2nd half completely shutting down both Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. But in my opinion that Browns offense isn't right, right now, Donte Stallworth and Joe Jurevicius were both hurt and one of the top return man in the league Josh Cribbs also didn't play, they were also injured in the secondary but I doubt it would have slowed down our offense that much. But both Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards look very very rusty, Edwards screwed his team over multiple times, dropping a would be TD (though they scored one later that drive) and several passes that would have resulted in some Browns 1st downs. But I'm happy with what I saw from the secondary, especially without Terrence Newman, I think he could have played in this game but due to our depth Wade didn't see it necessary.
Up front our pass rush could have been better but Anderson was on the run several times in the 2nd half and DeMarcus Ware was doubled and triple teammed the whole game and one of the few times he got single coverage against top T Joe Thomas he forced a fumble and was credited with a sack. But they weren't blitzing much and didn't have to. And also some people were wondering how Tank Johnson and Jay Ratliff would man the run defense and it was stellar, though it was up against an injured Jamal Lewis he didn't break free for any gigantic runs, and it's been mentioned by many Cowboy writers all camp about seeing a new Marcus Spears and he had a good game Sunday. He's always been very good against the run but is normally useless against the pass. One thing I would like to see improve is the Cowboys tackling technique, especially since this next week they'll be playing Brian Westbrook who is always tough to bring down. To many times this past Sunday did it take a couple times to take down a Browns player, it was also a problem in the pre-season.

Picks last week: 9-7, last week wasn't against the spread, what I want to to do as an experiment this year is try and see how I pick against the spread and straight up.

Picks:
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
The Bengals struggled mightily on offense last week against a tough Ravens D, the Titans D is just as tough and features a better pass rush. Expect to see Carson Palmer on his back. Take the Titans.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)
The Jags are decimated with injuries on there offensive line which led to there pathetic offensive display against Tennessee. Buffalo is riding high after last week, I like both teams and this could be another low scoring game that's 13-10. Give me the Bills outright.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
This could be one of the few chances KC has to get a win this season, they won't spoil it, especially after nearly beating the Pats last week, they'll be riding high in the home opener. Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings
Peyton Manning looked rusty last week, having an undrafted rookie Center doesn't help either, Manning could be running for his life in the pocket again this week. But so will Tarvaris Jackson and Peterson won't be running over Bob Sanders like he did Al Harris last week. Colts. By the way the over/under is at 43.5 I'd take the under

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
Both teams are riding high after surprising many (including myself) last week in some improbable upsets, I expect Jake Delhomme to run into some problems this week and missing Steve Smith will catch up to him, expect Matt Forte to build off a solid debut last week. Da Bears

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Detroit Lions
Duh Duh Duh Da Duh Duh Duh GO PACK GO! Plain and simple, O/U is 45.5 expect Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Grant to do it big take the over.

NY Giants (-8.5) @ St. Louis Rams
I foresee the Rams surprsing some this game and Eli struggling, I think the Giants win the game in the end but by less then a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins (even)
I can't believe this game is even, the only reason I can see is Colston will be hurt but that is not going to stop the Saints high powered offense, especially if new coach Jim Zorn puts out that excuse of an offense like he did last week vs. the Giants. Saints BIG

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)
I'm shocked the Bucs are a touchdown favorite, with Michael Turner and Jerius Norwood combining to run for over 300 yards and with John Gruden benching Jeff Garcia in favor of Brian Griese. This will be an interesting test for the Falcons ground game and could show if Michael Turner is legit, the run game needs to get going to not put any extra pressure on Matt Ryan. This is the type of game I see either being close the entire game or Gruden's Bucs will blow the Falcons out early and it won't even be the contest. I'll go with the former, take the Bucs to win, but the Falcons cover.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7)
The only reason the 49ers should be in this game is the Seahawks lack of WR's and lack of competent running backs (since Maurice Morris will also miss this game, enter Julius 'Suck' Jones) I'll still take the 'Hawks and predicting there defense has a huge day.

New England Patriots @ NY Jets (-1.5)
Belichick spoils Favre's home debut and reminds everyone why he is a genius. Pats

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) @ Denver Broncos
Can the Chargers recover from last weeks game or will Jay Cutler and the Broncos be able to build off of last weeks game? I say the Chargers get down early and stage a 2nd half comeback, Chargers.

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
Don't ask why but I see the Cardinals covering this and the Dolphins struggle, and once the Cardinals go 2-0 some will start to wonder whether or not they are a legit team.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) @ Cleveland Browns
Clevelands display last week was pathetic, while Pittsburgh was arguably the most impressive team last week, Pittsburgh normally plays great at Cleveland, take Pittsburgh, though Cleveland will come out looking noticeably better.

Monday night:
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (-4.5)
Can Houston overcome the "elements" of Hurricane Ike? Possibly, you'd like to think coming home after a big blowout will cause the team to play with a little more fire, now they have this hurricane can possibly fire up the team even more. Houston was pathetic in nearly every aspect last week. But the Ravens still have a rookie QB starting for them, take Houston.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Tough matchup, obvious game of the week and both teams will come out guns a blazing, there are now a couple questions on whether or not Terrence Newman will play (for the 2nd straight week) I think we'll need him to go up against a guy like Desean Jackson because I don't know how comfortable you are with him going up against Anthony Henry, Henry is great against the bigger physical corners but can't handle the speedsters, Newman can play against anyone. Adam Jones looked good last week aside from a Pass Interference penalty, he almost had a Pick 6 too. I'll predict he picks off McNabb once this Monday. And I'll also say the Cowboys cover the spread.

Until next time. Where I'll probably be writing to myself again.

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