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Monday, March 24, 2008

Sports Depression Moment 13098

Sunday afternoon a hard fought game vs. the Spurs and Ime Udoka is on a fast break as Dirk is chasing him down. He blocks the shot and then season over. His knee just sort of buckles as it goes away from his body. He just laid there motionless and you knew from the second it happened it was bad. The crowd just laid there motionless, you could hear a pin drop as everyone in the building even the Spurs fans just sat there sort of in a state of shock.

It was pretty obvious who was going to win that game from there on out, the Mavs had blown a 12 point lead thanks Avery's "stellar offense" and then Dirk goes down.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3309429

The above was written on Monday the day after the Dirk injury, it's now Friday because I always get lazy to write these things.

Anyways I'm still unsure on if the Mavericks will make the playoffs or if I even want them too. If we miss the playoffs we get a 1st round pick since the one we traded this year is lottery protected and there is some real talent this year that could fall to our pick. On the other hand the amount of close games the Mavericks have played against top teams makes me think they can hang with any team in the league, maybe not win but give some teams some real problems and go to 6 or 7 games.

All I can say is I think it's almost safe to say that the Jason Kidd trade was a failure, there's only 2 reasons it could be considered a good trade, Erick Dampier and Dirk Nowitzki. Dampier is playing the best basketball of his Maverick career (maybe entire career) and has taken advantage of the extended playing time and has done a good job staying out of foul trouble, he's looked real motivated. As for Dirk, he looked like he's in another zone since the trade, he was still playing top basketball for the most part prior to the Kidd trade but his field goal and 3 pt. % have raised as has his Points per game. And then you see the intensity in his eyes it reminds me of when he carried the Mavs to the Finals 2 seasons ago.

The problem is just about everything else has made the trade look like a failure. I thought it was a panic trade from the time it was made just because the Mavs had lost 4 of 5, all without Devin Harris and they were really just reacting to the Shaq and Pau Gasol trades. Jason Kidd and Avery Johnson's styles of play are polar opposites, Jason Kidd is best used when in transition where Avery loves to play isolation with Dirk, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse. And of course I have to mention not beatin a team over .500 since February 13th. And then there's the 2 1st rounders we gave up (It's weird how everyone thought it was crazy to make this years pick lottery protected and the 2010 pick unprotected but now it's looking like a half decent move, but what if we decided to rebuild? That pick could set us back assuming we blew it up.) This team would have been so much better off trying to find a decent 2 guard like Mike Miller or Corey Maggette then they ever would have been trading for Kidd if you ask me.

I always wonder why I hear experts say we didn't have a chance to win a title this year so the Kidd trade wasn't bad at the time. I wonder how many of these "experts" knew that we were 28-11 when Devin Harris was in the lineup.

I'm going to guess as of right now we aren't going to make the playoffs, it really just depends on if Dirk comes back soon and we somehow manage to beat some teams vying for playoff spots. And Dirk may be back sooner then expected because earlier this week he was in a boot and has already removed it and started doing underwater exercises.

But this next stretch of games is just brutal, we have enough trouble scoring but now we have to play Golden St. twice in the next 3 games, Phoenix and the Lakers, and tonight we just lost the season series with Denver as our defense got torched and they now have a tie breaker over us. If we can win 1 game vs. the Warriors we'll have take the season series versus them.

And speaking of the Denver game I just love how we can hang 70 on a team and then score 35 points in the 2nd half, the end result may look Ok (though we were still beat handily) scoring wise but how we got there makes it seem totally different. Them scoring 70 and then 35 in both halves reminded me of on Tuesday when they played the Clippers for the 1st game without Dirk and they scored 22 points in the 1st 5 minutes of the game and over the next 12 minutes scored 11. It's pathetic how inconsistent we are.

Also I'm curious what will happen if we miss the playoffs this season, I'm thinking Avery Johnson is gone regardless of us making the playoffs, unless we make it past the 1st round. Donnie Nelson (Mavericks GM son of Don Nelson) may be on his way out but I've always loved his ability to find diamonds in the rough in the draft and in free agency (Josh Howard, Brandon Bass, Desagana Diop) I just think this team would be better off missing the playoffs and picking either a 2 guard or future PG or a center like Hakeem Thabeet or Roy Hibbert. And though he'll go in the late 1st round I've always loved Brandon Rush's game but for some reason he isn't viewed that highly for the next level. Before the season Kevin Love was projected to be a surefire top 10 pick then slipped to the middle of the 1st round and now with his great tournament run at UCLA continuing it appears he'll be going before the Mavs will have picked (assuming they miss the playoffs and all but likely losing the lottery they'll be picking 14th) I also wouldn't be shocked to see Jason Terry traded but his value is very low I'd imagine. Maybe trade Josh Howard and try to get a better 2nd scorer but I wouldn't have a clue off the top of my head. Also maybe by some miracle we can actually sign a half decent guy for our Mid Level Exception. I'm curious what a player like Ron Artest would fetch on the open market, he's certainly worth more then the 6 million the MLE is but you have to factor in the personality and possible locker room cancer.

O well until next time I'll just be soaking in my sports depression

Monday, March 17, 2008

It's time to dance

Well the conference tournaments are done and the "madness" will begin Thursday and Friday with the opening rounds. Hopefully there will be a little more upsets this year then last year and I think there can be. What's also interesting is that in my opinion there is no real standout team from the tourney, some will argue that UNC or UCLA or Memphis are a cut above everyone else but I just don't see it. There is no Florida this year where the majority agree that they will win, I can see a number of teams having a real shot at winning it all sort of like the Western Conference in the NBA this year.



So before I give my tourney predictions I'd like to speak on the Rockets and there winning streak.



It's impressive, can't say it any simpler then that. They're finally grasping Rick Adelman's system and everyone knows there role and now that Yao is out everyone is stepping up there game. There defense is amazing and that's really without an interior shot blocker once Dikembe Mutombo sits down. The defense Shane Battier played on Kobe Bryant was some of the best I have ever seen played on a player, just watching Battier play Bryant straight up with little to no help and not committing many fouls. I couldn't believe nearly every Kobe shot as Kobe jumped in the air he stuck his hand in Kobe's face inbetween Kobe's arms and he never touched Kobe or fouled him just a hand in his face. And it clearly bothered Kobe. Again to reiterrate it was just picture perfect defense, he was beating kobe to his spots and putting a hand right in his face to contest his shot everytime down.

And Rafer Alston is playing his ass off right now, I remember a week and a half ago when he played the Mavs I was embarrassed when he scored 22 or 25 against us, but he was possessed yesterday, like in his old And1 day or pickup game, if you're feeling it you give yourself a heat check and he was clicking on all cylinders. The entire game I watched and the whole time even when the Lakers got close I felt the Rockets were in control of the game and I'm not sure why, maybe it was because everyone was contributing and TMac wasn't even scoring much and could go off at anytime. Then the Rockets hit a couple 3's in a row and put the game away after a couple of missed Kobe jumpers.

I wrote that Monday night, fastforward one day and it looks like the Celtics beat the Rockets one day after coming back from at one point a 22 point deficit to beat the Spurs, so they've now swept through 2/3 of the Texas Triangle and if the Mavericks come out flat like they did against the Lakers they'll do that without breaking a sweat. But I doubt we will see this long a streak for a very very long time, good job Rockets. I will not take you as lightly as I would have if it had ended at 15 or so but I still don't see them winning the title and will still have a hard time getting out of the 1st round.

The Mavericks played the Lakers tonight and lost by 2, but that's a deceiving score because they were down by 25 at one point until the Mavs bench starting bringing them back in the game led by, Tyronn Lue, Devean George (who defended Kobe better then anyone else on this team making him work to get the ball. But everyone hates him now so most will dismiss this.) and Jason Terry. Kobe got his 4th foul and that also helped the Mavs lock down on defense for the rest of the game as there offense finally got going after a sub 40% shooting in the 1st half. Then Vladimir Radmonivic hits 3 straight 3's to put them up 12, thats what killed the Mavs. But down 12 with about 6 minutes left the team didn't quit and Dirk showed up once again and played like a monster.

For the majority of the game I'd say he and the afforementioned bench players were the only to show up tonight. Stackhouse played awful overdribbling and some costly turnovers, but he was able to get to the line in the 4th. Howard took some dumb shots and Brandon Bass should have just not shown up but it was partly Avery's fault to let him play the center position when he's more suited for the 4 or even the 3 spot. But as I was saying the Mavs kept clawing back, and the refs let the teams play tonight and it was real physical (which I enjoyed because Kobe shot 48 free throws in the 1st 2 meetings this season) and the Mavericks got it in within 1 point when Dirk hit backtoback 3 pointers. The Lakers then go down and miss a fadeaway shot by Radmonovic (who must have confused himself with Kobe) and the ref called the softest most iffy over the back call I can remember. I was steamin mad because it was the biggest piece of shit call, but what can you expect when you play the Lakers. Not to mention when Dirk made his last 3 to make it a one point game he was knocked over by Lamar Odom but I didn't expect nor think it was a foul but the fact was there was contact. I've seen players get away with over the back but that my friend was no over the back. Odom hits 2 ft's to make it a 3 point game.

The Mavs go down and miss a shot where it ended in Jason Kidds hands (who was nonexistent throughout) and make 1 of 2 free throws. 14 seconds left and the Mavs look befuddled when they get the ball and can't really get separation to make a shot as they fumble the ball and then Jason Terry jacks up a 3 5 feet behind the line and swishes it to make it a 1 point game. Derek Fisher is fouled and misses 1 of 2 free throws. 4 seconds left and Josh Howard is the inbounder and throws a terrible pass to Dirk around his ankles, Dirk fumbles the ball and has to throw up a prayer. The only real chance he had was that Odom jumped in the air and he couldve jumped to the side where Odom was and drawn a foul possibly but Dirk has a little self respect, I wouldn't have wanted to win like that, especially because we shouldn't have been close to winning in the 1st place.

The Mavs lost because they lost there intensity once the starters went out in the 1st quarter and it didn't show back up until about 6 minutes left in the 3rd. And now this team hasn't beaten a team over .500 since Jason Kidd got here. All our games with top teams have been close (sans Houston) but sooner or later it has got to start turning into wins and not almost wins or if we got a bounce or 2. It has to start vs. Boston and then continue against San Antonio, this team cant just play a good half like they have much of the season. I don't know what the potential for this team is, the homer in me doesn't want to admit it's not that good and I know they have the potential to be great but they're one and done right now. This game should have been a must win without Gasol and Bynum it should have been a win and we couldve moved ahead of the Lakers and the struggling Spurs and moved a game closer to New Orleans and Houston but we pissed it away, and this wasn't even Kobe's best effort, we got beat by there role players like Vladimir Radmonivic and Ronny Turiaf. We were beat to lose balls, part of that is because of Dampier having limited minutes and Avery playing small the 2nd half but he could have gotten some key balls late in the 4th that led to some Laker buckets.

This team has to beat Boston and San Antonio and there should be no excuses not to because they've shown they can stick with them in there house and we have the 2nd best home record in the league, I dont give a damn if Boston just beat the Spurs and Rockets on back to back nights.


Alright here's a couple of quick problems I have with the NCAA tournament seedings, the Big 10 and Butler got screwed on the seedings. If Butler was ranked in the top 15 and had a great RPI and everything you want to make the tourney and have a high seed what the hell do they have to do to get higher then a 7 seed? I hope they make it to the elite 8 to shove it up the committees ass, but they're supposedly faced with a tough 1st round matchup with South Alabama so we'll wait and see. Secondly how the hell did Indiana get an 8 seed? They were 3rd in the Big 10, granted I've followed them most of the year and they are sort of falling apart with Kelvin Sampsons departure and have lost 3 of 4 but they finished 14-4 in the Big 10 and when looking at there whole season you go 24-7 in a mid major that gets you an 8 seed, in a major conference that has sent a team to the title game in 2 of the last 4 years is a joke by the committee. If Indiana gets it together and beats Arkansas in round 1, they'll give Carolina run for there money, DJ White is the best player in the Big 10, it all depends on how the 3 pt. shooting is and if Eric Gordon can shoot a respectable percentage. Oh and if there defense doesn't fall apart like it did at the end of the season.

That goes for Wisconsins seed too, they're better then Texas and even with them having hom court advantage all the way to the Final 4 they'll still find a way to choke, I found that out by just watching them screw up and cave in the Big 12 finals Sunday, they had that game and DJ Augustine decides to take some ill advised shots and the rest of the team followed suit. Purdue I think should be a higher seed and I have no problem with Michigan St. seeding they should probably flip flop with Purdue, sicne they finished higher. The Big 10 tourney really hurt them and Indiana.

I was shocked to see both Baylor and Kansas St. make the tourney but the USC/K St. has the chance to be a classic showdown between 2 top draft picks in Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo.

Quick predictions for the tourney, I don't think Memphis or UNC will win it all, partially because of my dislike for both of them (I die a little everytime I see a moronic fan poll claim the 82 UNC team the greatest ever) and I saw John Calipari just run the refs ragged and yell the whole game when he played a 16 seed one year, that really annoyed me. I'm going to guess that at least 1 will not make the Final 4. Probably UNC if I had to choose, this has nothing to do with hating them but they are playing by far the toughest region.

Here's my predictions from a bracket I did in about 5 minutes yesterday.

Sweet 16:
East: UNC, Notre Dame, Louisville, Butler
MidWest: Kansas, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Georgetown Wisconsin/Georgetown could be the game of the tourney if they meet
West: UCLA, UConn, Xavier, Duke
South: Memphis, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, St. Mary's

Last year there werent many upsets especially compared to previous years and this year I didn't pick as many as I normally do.

Final Four:
Notre Dame vs. Georgetown = Georgetown
UCLA vs. Pittsburgh (gotta ride there hot streak going into this thing) = UCLA

UCLA vs. Georgetown = UCLA they finally win the title game after there 3rd straight Final Four appearance, this time they'll be the better team and not have to go up against the powerhouse Florida team.

A couple of potential upsets, I see that my final four matchups look real shocking especially Pitt and Notre Dame but look for Duke to possibly go down in the 1st weekend though this team is better then the last couple years that Mike K has coached.
I picked Butler to go to the Elite 8 and could look like a real dumbass especially if they go down in the 1st round.
Winthrop beat Notre Dame in the 1st round last year as a 13 seed, this year they play Washington St.
Xavier is a team I like but they're playing Georgia who is on an unbelievable high winning the SEC with 3 games in 2 days and needing those 3 to have a .500 record. Who knows what kind of momentum they'll have to start and if they'll tire out.
I picked Kentucky to go to the Elite 8, could be a dumbass but I like Billy G. and he whipped his team into shape after sucking in non-conference play.
UCLA could win it all but 4 of there last 6 games have been decided by less then a bucket with some very favorable calls. They could have a tough time if they play either Hakeem Thabeet or Drake in the Sweet 16.
Oh and I always pick Kansas to choke or underperform, works everyear, did work for Roy Williams too until he had 4 1st round picks on his team, this year I'd say the same goes for Texas. I did pick KU to make an Elite 8 run this year though but that's because I like Brandon Rush and think he's being underestimated when it comes to his pro prospects.

Thats it for now, i need to start trying to finish my baseball articles.